After suffering its first home loss of the season last week against Tulsa, the UCF football team is looking to notch its first road victory of the year in a matchup with the No. 25 ranked Southern Miss Golden Eagles.
The Knights will look to bounce back and get closer to becoming bowl eligible in a tough matchup against a Southern Miss team that is currently riding a seven-game winning streak.
The Golden Eagles handed the Knights their only conference loss last season, when they won 31-21 at Bright House Networks Stadium on Nov. 13 of last year.
Southern Miss has won three straight games against the Knights and leads the overall series 5-1. So, UCF will be looking to avenge last season’s loss and upset a ranked opponent on the road. The Golden Eagles are the first ranked opponent UCF has played since they beat Houston at home in 2009.
If the Knights can play hungry, they might be able to get some revenge against a hot Southern Miss team.
Scouting Report UCF (4-5, 2-3 C-USA)
The Knights are coming off a tough loss to Tulsa at home last Thursday, which basically crushed their hopes of playing for the Conference-USA Championship. The good news is that UCF can still be eligible for a bowl game if they win two of its next three games.
Against Tulsa, UCF had the halftime lead as well as a fourth-quarter lead, but squandered it late in the game on a G.J. Kinne touchdown pass. UCF failed to answer back and lost the game in heartbreaking fashion. The Knights failed to convert late in the fourth at the five-yard line, and turned the ball back over to Tulsa. The Golden Hurricanes were then able to run out the clock by getting first downs at will against the UCF defense.
The Knights had trouble against Tulsa’s hurry-up offense throughout the game. This was a style of play that the Knights really haven’t seen too much of the whole season. Tulsa quarterback G.J. Kinne had a big day through the air and on the ground. He rushed for a game-high 92 yards on 14 attempts, and threw for 203 yards and a touchdown. UCF couldn’t get much pressure on the quarterback, which led to Kinne’s big game. As a team, Tulsa finished with 251 rushing yards.
UCF has had eight full days to prepare for Southern Miss, and hopefully they can get back on track by filling the holes in the defense left from last game.
Head coach George O’Leary knows that it will only get harder from here.
“Right now I think Southern Miss is playing as well as anybody in the conference as far as both sides of the ball,” O’Leary said during his weekly press conference. “I think it’s a game where we’ve got to go in and do what we have to get done aggressively [on] offense aggressively [on] defense and win the special teams’ game. And that’s the shot we have there, and we’ve got to get that done.”
O’Leary knows that Southern Miss is also a no-huddle team and has been preparing his team to face it once again.
Look for the Knights defense to come back strong after the rush defense allowed an uncharacteristic 251 yards last game. The UCF defense still ranks in the top of the country in most categories, including points allowed (5th), yards per game (5th) and pass yards (6th).
So, if the Knights defense can hold it down, they have a good shot against a high power Southern Miss offense, which ranks in the top of C-USA in most offensive categories.
The Golden Eagles can make plays on both sides of the ball, so it will be a challenge for UCF to stop them. They can run the ball very well and play lock down defense.
UCF will need to pound the ball on the ground, starting with Brynn Harvey if they are going to get their offense going. Freshman Blake Bortles will get the nod at quarterback this week, so it will be a test to see how he performs under pressure against a nationally ranked opponent. He offers a different set of abilities at quarterback than Jeff Godfrey, so it will be interesting to see how he leads the Knights offense.
The Knights rush defense will also need to get back on track after last week’s debacle, and limit the three-headed rushing monster USM poses.
For the Knights, it will come down to converting big plays at the right times, which they have failed to do so many times this season.
Scouting Report Southern Miss (8-1, 4-1 C-USA)
The Southern Miss Golden Eagles earned their seventh straight win last Saturday with a 48-28 victory over East Carolina. Right now, the Golden Eagles are in first place in the C-USA East Division and are ranked No. 25 in the nation.
The Golden Eagles defense and special teams both had a major impact against East Carolina. There were two interceptions returned for touchdowns, a blocked punt returned for a touchdown and a punt returned for a touchdown.
No single player had an absolutely great game for Southern Miss because it was a team effort. The offense converted when they needed to, and the defense and special teams stepped up and made big plays. The defense recorded five sacks, and only gave up 2.4 yards per rush.
The Golden Eagles are second in the league in points scored at 37.6 per game, as well as second in yards per game at 450.6. They lead C-USA in rushing yards with 207 per game.
The rushing attack is a collective effort, led by Jamal Woodyard, Kendrick Hardy and Tracy Lampley, as well as quarterback Austin Davis, who is a dual threat.
Woodyard, Hardy and Davis all have over 70 rushing attempts this season and have combined for 1,118 yards and seven touchdowns. Woodyard leads the pack with 475 yards and three touchdowns.
Davis is second in the conference in touchdown passes with 18, to go along with 2,147 yards and a 64 percent completion percentage.
The USM defense is also extremely strong this year, ranking right behind UCF in most defensive categories.
The defense only allows 19.6 points per game, which is second in C-USA, as well as only 343 yards per game. They have an effective secondary that is tied for best in the conference with 13 interceptions. The USM rush defense is also good, limiting opponents 129 yards per game on the ground this season.
Southern Miss will also look to capitalize on their strong special teams, as well as capitalize on UCF’s weak special teams. The Knights have muffed punts and allowed for punt return touchdowns too many times this season, so they will need to limit that if they are going to have a chance at the upset.
Keys To Victory
– Win the turnover battle. History shows that the winner of the turnover battle in this series always wins the game.
– Limit quarterback Austin Davis. There is no doubt that Davis has been a great quarterback for USM during his career there. He has already surpassed Brett Favre as the school’s all-time leading passer (9,543 yards and 71 TD). The UCF secondary and safeties will be tested with long passes from Davis.
– Be prepared for the no-huddle offense. The pressure will be on the UCF defense to stop the quick plays from Southern Miss. The team has been studying film on Southern Miss and will be prepared for the no-huddle offense, but stopping it is another question.
“I think if you have an experienced defense, I don’t think it’s usually a problem,” said O’Leary. “It’s when they’re inexperienced, and they are worried about the last play. In my experience with the young kids and with the linebacker and even in the secondary is that they don’t key in on the next play. They are still looking at the last play and that’s what you got to get them out of because the next play is most important.”
– Stop the potent rushing attack of Southern Miss.
– The Knights will have to be at their best on special teams, as well as limit the playmaking abilities that USM has in their own special teams.
– If the Knights win this game, it will be their first win on the road this season. UCF no longer controls its own destiny to the Conference-USA Championship. They will need major collapses from the teams ahead of them. A win against Southern Miss could be the first step toward a bowl game.
Final Thoughts
– Southern Miss is favored to win by nine points.
– Coach O’Leary confirmed this week that redshirt freshman QB Blake Bortals will play this Saturday.
– The Golden Eagles own the all-time series record 5-1, and have won the past three meetings.
– This will be the Knights’ first game against a top-25 school since the Houston game on November 14, 2009.
– The game will be broadcasted on CBS Sports Network at 8 PM on Saturday.
Prediction – Southern Miss 31, UCF 17
