The weather forecast in Texas looks a lot better than it did last weekend in Orlando when the Knights won 16-6 over Marshall despite torrential weather conditions. The UCF football team will go on the road to take on SMU this Saturday seeking its first road victory of the year in a rematch of last year’s Conference USA Championship.
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Over the course of the week, the talk around town is that UCF will likely be invited to join the Big East very soon.
The Knights will need to ignore that distraction as this matchup is likely to be the biggest test of the season for UCF. It will be a game where UCF can make a statement, and let everyone know that they deserve to be in a BCS conference.
The Knights are 3-0 all-time against the Mustangs, and they will look to continue that dominance as they chase their goal of winning the C-USA title. SMU has a great shot of representing the West division of the conference in the title game this year, so this game could have championship implications.
Scouting Report- SMU
The SMU Mustangs are coming off a huge overtime victory on the road against previously nationally ranked TCU. SMU (4-1, 2-0) got off to a fast start after two touchdown passes from senior quarterback J.J. McDermott and a field goal put them up 17-0. They were up 33-17 with 13 minutes remaining in the game, but TCU fought back to force the game into overtime.
Jeremy Johnson caught a 19-yard touchdown pass from McDermott in overtime, and the SMU defense kept TCU out of the end zone to seal the victory.
The Mustangs have a balanced attack of rushing and passing. Running back Zach Line is 12th in the nation with 116.6 rushing yards per game and is the top scorer in C-USA with 11 rushing touchdowns.
SMU averages 32.8 points per game this season, which is third in C-USA. However, the Mustangs defense has been a big part of their early season success. The Mustangs rank 14th in yards per game and 11th in rushing defense in the country, and are in No. 2 in most defense categories in Conference USA.
Their only loss of the season came in the season opener at Texas A&M. They have won four straight games since that defeat.
Scouting Report- UCF
Last week, the Knights (3-2, 1-0) were able to bounce back after two straight losses with a win against Marshall in a game which featured torrential rainstorms and a relentless rushing attack from red shirt junior running back Brynn Harvey.
With his performance against Marshall, Harvey solidified his spot as the Knights’ starting running back. Over the first four games of the season, Harvey shared carries with Ronnie Weaver and Latavius Murray. Harvey made his first start in 22 months after missing all of last season with a torn ACL.
The weather clearly affected both teams’ style of play in the game, and UCF got back to playing hard-nosed football by pounding the ball with the run game. They established that with the very first play from scrimmage when Harvey broke through a hole, and ran for a 50-yard gain. A few plays later, Jeff Godfrey found A.J. Guyton in the end zone for Godfrey’s first touchdown pass of the season.
Just before the end of the first quarter, Murray ran for a four-yard touchdown to give the Knights an early 14-0 lead.
The UCF defense forced a safety in the second quarter to put the Knights ahead 16-0. Marshall was limited to six first downs and 130 total yards.
The Knights made a few miscues late in the game, but ultimately held on for the 16-6 win.
Harvey will make his second start of the season on Saturday, and will almost certainly have better field conditions to work with at Gerald Ford Stadium. The weather forecast in Dallas predicts sunny skies for the late afternoon game.
The UCF defense still remains as a dominant force. UCF is ranked in the FBS top-10 in all five major defensive categories, including No. 1 in passing defense. UCF is the only Division I team that has not allowed a passing touchdown all season. Only three touchdowns from opponents have come against the UCF defense.
Keys to Victory
The Knights must take care of the ball and limit turnovers and penalties. Turning the ball over caused the two upset losses for UCF at Florida International and Brigham Young. The Knights can’t afford to make those kind of mistakes against any team on their remaining schedule, especially SMU.
The streak of no passing touchdowns allowed might be broken this week at SMU. The UCF corners will be tested because McDermott will be throwing constantly. Over the past two games, he has thrown a total of 89 passes. McDermott has completed 57.7 percent of his passes this season, and he will look to pick his spots against the UCF defense. If the Knights defense can limit that, they will be in good position to win the game.
The Knights only give up 77 yards rushing per game, and they will have to limit Zach Line’s production. Linebackers and defensive lineman will also be challenged with gang-tackling against Line, who is load at 6’1’’ and 230 pounds.
Against Marshall, the Knights planned on making more big plays in the passing game. They couldn’t do that against Marshall because of the horrible rain, so look for them to take some shots down the field. Harvey has established himself as a major rushing threat, so use of the play action should keep the linebackers and safeties on their toes.
If the Knights running game is on point, it will open up Godfrey’s passing game down field. If the two attacks are working in sync, UCF has a great opportunity to win. But, it will be the UCF secondary against SMU’s aerial attack that could prove as the difference.
Final Thoughts
– This is the Knights first trip to SMU since 2007.
– UCF is 3-0 all-time against SMU.
– SMU is favored by 3.5 points.
– Coach George O’Leary has 100 career wins.
– UCF has won seven games in a row against C-USA West teams.
Prediction: SMU 17- UCF 16
